For more than thirty years, American policymakers operated under the simple assumption: no matter how chaotic the Middle East became, the United States would ultimately determine how events unfolded.
Iran has shattered that assumption.
After speaking this week with realist foreign policy scholar Dr. Arta Moeini of the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, I came away convinced that many policymakers in Washington, D.C., still do not fully appreciate what this war has revealed.
No matter how the war ends—or when—the chances that the regional order returns to the way it was before February 28 are zero.
Indeed, a new Middle East is clearly emerging.
It will be a post-American order there.
Washington Cannot Define Victory
One of the most striking features of this conflict has been the constant shifting of American objectives.
At various points, the goal was to overthrow the blighted regime in Tehran. Then, it was denuclearization. After that, the goal shifted more to ending the ballistic missile and drone threat that the Islamic Republic posed to the region. Now, it’s reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
None of these objectives is achievable.
Washington entered this conflict assuming that Iran would eventually buckle under pressure. Instead, Tehran absorbed the punishment and kept fighting. Whether one supports the Iranian regime or despises it is because of the point. Strategically, Iran has survived.
Survival has its consequences.
And one of those consequences is an Islamic Republic of Iran more galvanized than ever before. It is an Iran that is clearly moving beyond simply surviving to something more: an attempt at regional dominance.
Iran Is Not Negotiating From Weakness
The Islamic Republic endured months of sustained military pressure and remained intact. Its command structure is intact. Its missile forces survived. Its political system remains.
Most importantly, its leaders emerged convinced that they successfully resisted both the United States and Israel.
Thus, Iran approaches its future encounters with both Washington and Tel Aviv from a position of relative strength. American policymakers who keep acting as though Iran is desperate for a deal may be operating from assumptions that no longer reflect reality.
The Abraham Accords Are Done
Another casualty of this conflict may be the strategic vision that underpinned the Abraham Accords.
When the accords were signed in the president’s first non-consecutive term, the assumption was that a coalition of Israel and the Gulf monarchies would gradually reshape the region while containing Iran.
The war exposed the limits of that approach.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and other Gulf states now find themselves confronting an uncomfortable truth. Their economic futures depend upon regional stability. Endless confrontation with Iran threatens precisely the stability they need.
Increasingly, the Mideast powers recognize that coexistence with Iran may be less dangerous than perpetual conflict.
That represents a significant strategic shift.
Israel Faces a New Reality
Perhaps no country faces a more complicated future than Israel. The war demonstrated that even overwhelming technological superiority cannot guarantee decisive political outcomes.
Missiles, drones, cyber warfare, and economic disruption have transformed modern conflict. Smaller states and regional powers now possess tools that were once available only to great powers.
Israel will soon need to choose between security and dominance. Right now, they’re choosing dominance. That will end in misery.
The Limits of American Power
Despite possessing the world’s most powerful conventional military, Washington has struggled to impose its preferred political outcome on the region. Massive expenditures on munitions, interceptors, diplomatic capital, and other resources have yielded diminishing returns.
Regional actors have noticed.
They increasingly believe that they—not Washington—will determine the future of the Middle East. That belief may prove to be the most important consequence for the entire conflict.
That belief may prove to be the most important consequence of the entire conflict.
The Bottom Line
When the Iran War ends, it will truly be a rebirth of the Mideast regional order. The old US-led Mideast is fading fast. The assumptions that governed the region since the end of the Cold War are fading. American influence is becoming less decisive.
Washington, naturally, will continue to pretend that everything in the Mideast is the same. The region already appears to have moved on.
Tomorrow, paid subscribers will receive my forecast for what happens next: the five powers most likely to dominate the Middle East through 2030—and why the balance of power emerging from this war may look nothing like the one America spent decades trying to build.
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The world is changing faster than most people realize.
China is rising. The Middle East is exploding. Biotechnology is rewriting the rules of power. America’s strategic position is under unprecedented strain across the board.
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Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower (2020) — Makes the case that America’s ability to remain the world’s leading power depends on its willingness to dominate the ultimate strategic high ground of space.
The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy (2022) — How Iran became the Middle East’s most disruptive power, and why its struggle with the US will determine the future of the region.
Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life (2023) — How China is seeking to master the science of life itself, and why the nation that wins the biotechnology race may determine the future of global power in the twenty-first century.
A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (2024) — Tells the untold story of how decades of Western strategic errors turned Ukraine into the battleground for a war that was far from inevitable.
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